Tianjin Teda 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Nantong Zhiyun at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Super League this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 64% versus Nantong Zhiyun 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tianjin Teda 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.54 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.119 / defence 0.943 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.636 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.295. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 14 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 18%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Nantong Zhiyun 5.56. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 60% | Nantong Zhiyun 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.54 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.119 / def 0.943 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.636 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Nantong Zhiyun xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 54% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.55
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.32
0.78
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
4%
26.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.78 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 6W 8D 0L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (3W 4D 0L).
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantong Zhiyun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 8D 0L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.86 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Nantong Zhiyun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nantong Zhiyun in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 25 June 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 71%, Nantong Zhiyun 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 29% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Tianjin Teda's games and 57% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 29% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.54 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.78 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.64 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 18%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 29%, Nantong Zhiyun 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.