Tianjin Teda 0-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Hebei Zhongji in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 5 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.83 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.973 / defence 1.699 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.813 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.835 / away 1.212. Data: 2 Tianjin Teda games / 2 Hebei Zhongji games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 15% | Draw 31% | Hebei Zhongji 54%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 6.67 | Draw 3.23 | Hebei Zhongji 1.85. Hebei Zhongji hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hebei Zhongji at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 15% | Draw 31% | Hebei Zhongji 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.83 / Hebei Zhongji 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.973 / def 1.699 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.813 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.835 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Hebei Zhongji xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 5 May 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 15% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 54% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.81x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
15%
6.69
31%
3.23
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.67
Hebei Zhongji xG
6.69
15%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
3%
35.70
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.67 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2022, when Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hebei Zhongji edge out Tianjin Teda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.83 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.67 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 1.70 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 15% | Draw 31% | Hebei Zhongji 54%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.