Tianjin Teda 2-3 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chengdu Better City at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 7D 0L at TEDA Football Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 2.00 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Chengdu Better City in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Chengdu Better City and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Chengdu Better City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Chengdu Better City 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.019 / defence 0.965 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.906 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.272. Data: 33 Tianjin Teda games / 33 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 33%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Chengdu Better City 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 70% | Chengdu Better City 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.24 / Chengdu Better City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.019 / def 0.965 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.906 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 3 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 39% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 3 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 1.02x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.58
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.11 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 22D 16L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.87 PPG from 63 outings (33W 19D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.54 PPG, Chengdu Better City on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 12W 14D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.74 points per game from 31 outings (15W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.59 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 11L in their last 63 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.61 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 55%, Chengdu Better City 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Tianjin Teda) and 39% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 45% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 39% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chengdu Better City defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Tianjin Teda 2-3 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 33%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Chengdu Better City 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.