Tianjin Teda 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tianjin Teda face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beijing Guoan travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Tianjin Teda's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 7D 0L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2023, ended Tianjin Teda 0–0 Beijing Guoan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Beijing Guoan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.82 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.935 / defence 0.999 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.005 / defence 0.644. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.371. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.644, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Tianjin Teda's projected output down. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 38 games and Beijing Guoan's last 38.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 22% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 50%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.47 | Draw 3.61 | Beijing Guoan 2.00. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 70% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 22% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Tianjin Teda 0.82 / Beijing Guoan 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.935 / def 0.999 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.005 / def 0.644 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 22% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.94) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 38 games and Beijing Guoan's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
22%
4.47
28%
3.61
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.20
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.72
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.38 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 25W 22D 16L from 63 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 16L across 63 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.54 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 12W 14D 6L from their last 32 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 15W 8D 9L across their last 32 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.73 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
5
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 66% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 81% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Tianjin Teda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.82 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 / defence 0.64, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 22% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 50%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.