Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Dalian Zhixing travel to Shenzhen Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 May 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Shenzhen Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dalian Zhixing in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 60% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.01 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.964 / defence 1.109 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.944 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.238. Dalian Zhixing bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 42 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 24%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 4.17. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Dalian Zhixing 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.01 / Dalian Zhixing 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.964 / def 1.109 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.944 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dalian Zhixing xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 54% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (2 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.63
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.30
1.29
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
3%
30.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.29 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 8W 3D 19L from 30 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 12L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.90 PPG, Dalian Zhixing on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 6W 2D 7L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dalian Zhixing's away record stands at 1W 7D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 8W 3D 19L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.33 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sichuan Jiuniu at 80%, Dalian Zhixing at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 47% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 47% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.01 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.29 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 24%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 70%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.