Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Dalian Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Thursday 1 September 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 4D 4L at Dalian Sports Center — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | SHANGHAI SIPG 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.82 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.710 / defence 0.968 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.908 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.293. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 28 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 25% | Draw 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 42%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 25% | Draw 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.82 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.710 / def 0.968 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.908 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 10:30 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 25% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
25%
3.95
33%
3.06
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.96
1.14
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.1 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.14 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 8W 11D 17L from 36 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 7L across 36 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 7W 6D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.58 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.41 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 59% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 0-0 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.82 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.71 / defence 0.97 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.91 / defence 0.82, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 25% | Draw 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 42%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39%, SHANGHAI SIPG 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.