Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to face Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Relegation Round - 2. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 2D 3L at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% and Shanghai Shenhua 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.845 / defence 1.126 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.999 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Shanghai Shenhua bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 14 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.845 / def 1.126 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.999 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 30% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.84x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.00x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
30%
3.35
30%
3.33
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.45 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 2W 4D 9L from 15 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 4L across 15 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.60 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Shanghai Shenhua in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.14 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-5 on 22 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29%, Shanghai Shenhua 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 57% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 57% of games; Shanghai Shenhua in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 71% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.