Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Puwan Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Puwan Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Changchun Yatai — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (35 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Changchun Yatai trading profile (35 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Changchun Yatai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.740 / defence 0.940 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.345 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.293. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 27 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 45%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 2.22. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 / Changchun Yatai 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.740 / def 0.940 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.345 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Changchun Yatai xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 29% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.74x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
29%
3.44
26%
3.88
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.91
1.63
Changchun Yatai xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.63 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 8W 11D 16L from 35 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 8L across 35 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Changchun Yatai by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 6W 7D 6L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.54 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 14W 13D 8L in their last 35 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.32 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
4
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%, Changchun Yatai 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 16% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 68% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 37% of games; Changchun Yatai in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 63% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 16% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 68% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-2 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.63 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.74 / defence 0.94 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.34 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 45%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37%, Changchun Yatai 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (35 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (35 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.