Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Changchun Yatai (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cangzhou Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Changchun Yatai — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 3 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Changchun Yatai trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.860 / defence 0.909 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.963 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.439. Data: 34 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 34 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 37%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Changchun Yatai 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 / Changchun Yatai 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.860 / def 0.909 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.963 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Changchun Yatai xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 3W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.86x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.69
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.48
1.26
Changchun Yatai xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.26 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 23L across 64 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.17 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 12D 12L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
4
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 56% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 56% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.26 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 37%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.17 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.