Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda meet at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Tianjin Teda in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2022, ended 2–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Tianjin Teda 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.32 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.163 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.018 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.293. Data: 35 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 35 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 40%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Tianjin Teda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 60% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Tianjin Teda 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.32 / Tianjin Teda 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.920 / def 1.163 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.018 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Tianjin Teda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 30% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.02x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.38
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.53
Tianjin Teda xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
7%
15.23
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.53 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 8D 29L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Tianjin Teda sit at 1.27 PPG from 55 outings (19W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.27 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 9W 3D 15L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Tianjin Teda have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2023, when Tianjin Teda 3-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 41%, Tianjin Teda 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 37% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 33%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 48% of games; Tianjin Teda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 41% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 37% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.32 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.53 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 40%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.