Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Championship Round - 1 as Shenzhen Ruby FC welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Huadu Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record at Huadu Stadium: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Super League appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Shenzhen Ruby FC) versus 2.00 (SHANGHAI SIPG). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 71% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.057 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.948 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 14 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 32% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 57% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 32% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.920 / def 1.057 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.948 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 10:00 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 30% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.92) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
30%
3.35
32%
3.12
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.29 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 7W 3D 4L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.71 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.14 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.71 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 57%, SHANGHAI SIPG 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 43% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 43% of games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 43% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 at Huadu Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 32% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 71%, SHANGHAI SIPG 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.