Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Championship Round - 8 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 January 2022, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.10 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% versus Beijing Guoan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% | Beijing Guoan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.25 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.931 / defence 1.071 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.756 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 14 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% | Draw 33% | Beijing Guoan 29%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Beijing Guoan 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% | Draw 33% | Beijing Guoan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.25 / Beijing Guoan 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.931 / def 1.071 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.756 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 4 January 2022 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 39% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.93) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.06
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.04 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 5D 7L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.52 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jul 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%, Beijing Guoan 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 50% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Beijing Guoan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 40% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 50% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.25 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% | Draw 33% | Beijing Guoan 29%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%, Beijing Guoan 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.52 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.