SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 88% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 9W 1D 0L at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 4.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in SHANGHAI SIPG's favour (2.70 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 1W, Sichuan Jiuniu 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 6–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 58% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 75% | Sichuan Jiuniu 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 3.78 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.894 / defence 0.941 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.699 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.303. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.894 — their λ of 3.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 24 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 88% | Draw 8% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.14 | Draw 12.50 | Sichuan Jiuniu 25.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (88%) — a 84pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 4.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 88% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 84% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 88% | Draw 8% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 56% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 3.78 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.894 / def 0.941 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.699 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (88%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.78
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
56%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 88% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 4% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.89x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 3.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.70x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
88%
1.14
8%
12.77
4%
23.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.78
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
4.64
0.86
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.14
88%
Home win
12.77
8%
Draw
23.31
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
2%
43.86
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 3.78 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.86 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 4.64.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 88%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.62 PPG on a 20W 3D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 6W 6D 12L from 24 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.83 PPG from 12 outings (11W 1D 0L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 3D 6L from 12 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 3.38 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.92 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 3D 1L in their last 24 games (2.62 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.83 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-6 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 50% for Sichuan Jiuniu — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 42% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 42% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 3.78 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.86 xG, a combined 4.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.89 / defence 0.94 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 88% | Draw 8% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 88%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 75%, Sichuan Jiuniu 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 4.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.