SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium plays host to SHANGHAI SIPG versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 1 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shandong Luneng in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 80% and Shandong Luneng 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 74% | Shandong Luneng 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.12 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.088 / defence 0.844 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.012 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.362. Data: 49 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 50 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.12 / Shandong Luneng 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.088 / def 0.844 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.012 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shandong Luneng xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng?
SHANGHAI SIPG 0 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 59% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng?
Record (9 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 4 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.01x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.78
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.28
1.16
Shandong Luneng xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
41.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.16 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 26W 12D 11L from 49 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 15L across 49 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.67 for Shandong Luneng. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 13W 7D 4L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.14 scored and 1.67 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Shandong Luneng in 76%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 26W 12D 11L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 24W 10D 15L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shandong Luneng away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.92 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 Shandong Luneng.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 75% for Shandong Luneng — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 75% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 75% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 75% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.12 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.16 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 20%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Shandong Luneng win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 74%, Shandong Luneng 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 1.84 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.