Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda meet at Jinzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 6W 3D 1L at Jinzhou Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 53% versus Tianjin Teda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 41% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.821 / defence 0.739 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.133 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.320. Tianjin Teda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Shanghai Shenhua games / 27 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 42% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 30%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Tianjin Teda 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 42% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 / Tianjin Teda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.821 / def 0.739 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.133 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 42% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.82) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.13x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.57
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 16W 11D 7L from 34 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 15L across 34 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 9W 6D 2L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 5W 5D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.09 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 16W 11D 7L in their last 34 games (1.74 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.94 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 41%, Tianjin Teda 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 35% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 47% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 35% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda finished level at 1-1 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.82 / defence 0.74 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.13 / defence 1.20, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 42% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 30%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 41%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.