Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. meet at Jinzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Jinzhou Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shanghai Shenhua's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 0W, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 54% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.39 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.858 / defence 0.718 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.203 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.278. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Shanghai Shenhua games / 35 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.39 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.858 / def 0.718 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.203 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 43% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (2 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.20x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.68
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.50
1.10
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.10 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 21W 15D 7L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 11W 13D 19L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (12W 7D 2L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.14 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 15D 7L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.05 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-5 on 22 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 43%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 71% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 71% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.39 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.86 / defence 0.72 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.20 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 37%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.