Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Aerbin make the trip to Shanghai Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 5 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dalian Aerbin are 0.60 PPG clear of Shanghai Shenhua in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 3W, Dalian Aerbin 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 54% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 39% | Dalian Aerbin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.936 / defence 0.738 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.142 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.218. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Shanghai Shenhua games / 38 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Draw 34% | Dalian Aerbin 23%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Dalian Aerbin 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua dominate the H2H record, yet Dalian Aerbin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Aerbin (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Dalian Aerbin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Draw 34% | Dalian Aerbin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 / Dalian Aerbin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.936 / def 0.738 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.142 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Dalian Aerbin xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 43% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (4 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 3W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.94) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (1.14x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
43%
2.32
34%
2.95
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.48
1.03
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.03 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 56 games, going 24W 18D 14L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (19W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 14W 8D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.29 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 18D 14L in their last 56 games (1.61 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.79 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 64% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 64% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.94 / defence 0.74 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Draw 34% | Dalian Aerbin 23%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 39%, Dalian Aerbin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.