Shandong Luneng 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shandong Luneng face Sichuan Jiuniu.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sichuan Jiuniu (1.80 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shandong Luneng, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Sichuan Jiuniu — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 73% and Sichuan Jiuniu 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 74% | Sichuan Jiuniu 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.55 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.213 / defence 1.054 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.784 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Shandong Luneng games / 55 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 100% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 64% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.55 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.213 / def 1.054 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.784 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 67% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (5 meetings): Shandong Luneng 5W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.21) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.78x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.69
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.71
1.16
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
8%
12.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
1%
84.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.16 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 55 games, going 28W 11D 16L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sichuan Jiuniu sit at 0.98 PPG from 55 outings (16W 6D 33L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 17W 6D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Sichuan Jiuniu have taken 0.52 points per game from 27 outings (4W 2D 21L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.24 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 11D 16L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 6D 33L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.11 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 11 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 74%, Sichuan Jiuniu 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Shandong Luneng and 63% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Shandong Luneng's games and 44% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 63% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.55 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 74%, Sichuan Jiuniu 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.