Qingdao Youth Island 0-4 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guzhenkou University Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guzhenkou University Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Qingdao Youth Island, 1.80 for Dalian Zhixing — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Dalian Zhixing in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Qingdao Youth Island have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Dalian Zhixing managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Qingdao Youth Island and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 59% versus Dalian Zhixing 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Dalian Zhixing 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.54 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.894 / defence 0.701 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.878 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.383. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Qingdao Youth Island games / 56 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Draw 28% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 70% | Dalian Zhixing 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Guzhenkou University Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Draw 28% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.54 / Dalian Zhixing 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.894 / def 0.701 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.878 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Dalian Zhixing xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Guzhenkou University Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 4 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Guzhenkou University Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 53% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 3W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.89) and Dalian Zhixing's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.88x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.64
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.39
0.85
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.85 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 24D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.36 PPG from 56 outings (21W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.36 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 11W 13D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (4W 10D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.21 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 24D 14L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 21W 13D 22L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.64 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Zhixing won 0-4 on 11 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
0
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 0-4 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 57%, Dalian Zhixing 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 50% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 64% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 50% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dalian Zhixing run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Qingdao Youth Island 0-4 at Guzhenkou University Sports Center, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.54 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.85 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 0.85 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.89 / defence 0.70 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Draw 28% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Zhixing win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 45%, Dalian Zhixing 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.39 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Zhixing win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.