Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Changchun Yatai at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.784 / defence 1.176 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.919 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.519. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Qingdao Youth Island games / 42 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 33% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 40%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 33% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 / Changchun Yatai 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.784 / def 1.176 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.919 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Changchun Yatai xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 33% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Changchun Yatai away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.78x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.78
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.12
1.64
Changchun Yatai xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.64 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.64 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 33% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 40%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.