Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantong Zhiyun at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Nantong Zhiyun at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nantong Zhiyun — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Qingdao Jonoon) versus 0.70 (Nantong Zhiyun). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Nantong Zhiyun 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Nantong Zhiyun 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.03 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.780 / defence 1.142 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.903 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.403. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Qingdao Jonoon games / 40 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 26% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 46%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.17. Nantong Zhiyun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 26% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.03 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.780 / def 1.142 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.903 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Nantong Zhiyun (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Nantong Zhiyun xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 26% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nantong Zhiyun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantong Zhiyun Win
26%
3.85
28%
3.52
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.48
1.45
Nantong Zhiyun xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.35
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.45 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 16L across 30 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.93 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.87 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.60 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
2
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Nantong Zhiyun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 33% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.03 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.45 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.78 / defence 1.14 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 26% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 46%, with Nantong Zhiyun to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Nantong Zhiyun 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.