Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 2W, Meizhou Kejia 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 4–2 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Meizhou Kejia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Meizhou Kejia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.711 / defence 0.950 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.019 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.447. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Qingdao Jonoon games / 38 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Meizhou Kejia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Meizhou Kejia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 / Meizhou Kejia 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.711 / def 0.950 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.019 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Meizhou Kejia xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 33% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.71x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (1.02x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.46
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.71
1.40
Meizhou Kejia xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.40 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 15W 12D 33L from 60 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 29L across 60 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.02 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 4W 8D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Meizhou Kejia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 63% (Meizhou Kejia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 60% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 63% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 38%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Meizhou Kejia 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.