Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–6 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Beijing Guoan trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Beijing Guoan 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Beijing Guoan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.814 / defence 0.845 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.312 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.463. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Qingdao Jonoon games / 41 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 44%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 / Beijing Guoan 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.814 / def 0.845 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.312 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 31% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.81) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
31%
3.27
25%
4.00
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.93
1.62
Beijing Guoan xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
16.58
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.62 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 12D 33L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (30W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.97 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Beijing Guoan 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 53% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 63% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 53% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan finished level at 1-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.31 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 44%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.