Qingdao Huanghai 2-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Yuexiushan Stadium to face Qingdao Huanghai in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.69 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.707 / away 2.046. Data: 0 Qingdao Huanghai games / 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 9% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 11.11 | Draw 3.85 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (65%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 9% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 0.69 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.707 / away 2.046 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Qingdao Huanghai 2 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 9% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 65% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating (0.85) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.85x) against Qingdao Huanghai's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
9%
11.01
26%
3.91
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.69
2.00
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
11.01
9%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
1%
81.38
33%
3.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 2.00 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2021, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Qingdao Huanghai defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Huanghai beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 0.69 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.00 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Huanghai beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 9% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Huanghai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.