Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Huanghai host Hangzhou Greentown at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Huanghai — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Huanghai at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.06 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.800 / defence 1.446 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Qingdao Huanghai games / 0 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 24% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.13. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 24% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 1.06 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.800 / def 1.446 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Hangzhou Greentown xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 24% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Qingdao Huanghai home split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Huanghai's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
24%
4.25
29%
3.43
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.65
1.58
Hangzhou Greentown xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.64
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.58 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
1
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2022, when Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Huanghai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 1.06 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Huanghai fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 24% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.