Meizhou Kejia 3-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.

Form

Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.20 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 0W, Tianjin Teda 2W, 3D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 61% and Tianjin Teda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 59% | Tianjin Teda 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.611 / defence 1.060 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.340. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Meizhou Kejia games / 51 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 26% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 47%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.13. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.

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