Meizhou Kejia 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shanghai Shenhua in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Meizhou Kejia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Meizhou Kejia half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 52% versus Shanghai Shenhua 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | Shanghai Shenhua 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.67 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.222 / defence 1.009 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.873 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.407. Data: 27 Meizhou Kejia games / 41 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 47% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.57. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 47% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.67 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.222 / def 1.009 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.873 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shanghai Shenhua xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 1 December 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 47% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.87x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 27/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.96
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.91
1.24
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.24 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 11W 7D 9L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 11W 9D 7L from 27 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.56 for Shanghai Shenhua. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 5D 4L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.22 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 games (1.48 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.85 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 6-1 on 26 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
8
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when Shanghai Shenhua 6-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Meizhou Kejia, 62% for Shanghai Shenhua — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Meizhou Kejia and 46% for Shanghai Shenhua. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 62% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Meizhou Kejia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Meizhou Kejia 0-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.67 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.24 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 27/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 47% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, Shanghai Shenhua 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.48 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.