Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Guangzhou Evergrande FC to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Meizhou Kejia stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Meizhou Kejia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 42% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 52% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.60 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.987 / defence 0.872 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.568 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.384. Data: 33 Meizhou Kejia games / 47 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 58% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 58% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.60 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.987 / def 0.872 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.568 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 58% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.99x the league average against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.72
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.29
0.69
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
33.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 0.69 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 13W 7D 13L from 33 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 22L across 33 games — 0.52 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Meizhou Kejia by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guangzhou Evergrande FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 1W 3D 12L across 16 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 0.73 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 8D 22L in their last 33 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.69 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2022, when Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 62%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Meizhou Kejia) and 50% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 38% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.60 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.69 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 58% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 15%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 52%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.