Henan Jianye 1-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Wuhan Zall.

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Full Analysis

Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Wuhan Zall in Super League (Relegation Round - 7). Kick-off: Friday 31 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time.

Form

Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Wuhan Zall have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Wuhan Zall's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Henan Jianye, 1.40 for Wuhan Zall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Dec 2021, ended Henan Jianye 1–1 Wuhan Zall — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 45% versus Wuhan Zall 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 15% | Wuhan Zall 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.949 / defence 1.043 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.730 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 14 games and Wuhan Zall's last 14.

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 33% | Wuhan Zall 26%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.43 | Draw 3.06 | Wuhan Zall 3.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 50% (last 10 away games).

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