Henan Jianye 2-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Wuhan Three Towns at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.70 PPG versus Wuhan Three Towns's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2023, ended 2–4 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Wuhan Three Towns 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.858 / defence 0.975 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.046 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.440. Data: 41 Henan Jianye games / 41 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 38%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Henan Jianye 1.45 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.858 / def 0.975 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.046 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Henan Jianye 2 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 37% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.86x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
37%
2.74
26%
3.87
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.91
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.47 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 25W 17D 21L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 38W 12D 13L from 63 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 19W 6D 6L from 31 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 38W 12D 13L in their last 63 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Wuhan Three Towns 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 64% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Henan Jianye's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Henan Jianye 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Henan Jianye 2-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 38%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.