Henan Jianye 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 0, Tianjin Teda 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (37 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (37 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 43% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 38% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.98 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.292 / defence 1.043 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.857 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.235. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Henan Jianye games / 31 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 20%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Tianjin Teda 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Henan Jianye 1.98 / Tianjin Teda 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.292 / def 1.043 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.857 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Tianjin Teda xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 57% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.29) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.26
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.08
1.10
Tianjin Teda xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
3%
36.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.10 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 16W 12D 9L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 10W 10D 17L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 12D 9L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.05 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
6
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 60%, Tianjin Teda 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 30% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 45% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 30% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.98 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.10 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.29 / defence 1.04 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 20%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Tianjin Teda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 38%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (37 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (37 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.