Henan Jianye 2-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Henan Jianye welcome Meizhou Kejia to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.20 (Meizhou Kejia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Henan Jianye's 30% rate and Meizhou Kejia's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 2 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 47% versus Meizhou Kejia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 56% | Meizhou Kejia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.26 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.762 / defence 0.713 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.027 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.308. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Henan Jianye games / 44 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 26%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Meizhou Kejia 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 30% | Meizhou Kejia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Henan Jianye 1.26 / Meizhou Kejia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.762 / def 0.713 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.027 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Meizhou Kejia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 41% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.76x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.11
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.21
0.96
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.96 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 16W 8D 10L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 14W 7D 13L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.65 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 8D 10L in their last 34 games (1.65 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 July 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Henan Jianye 50% BTTS, Meizhou Kejia 19%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Henan Jianye) and 44% (Meizhou Kejia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 38%; Meizhou Kejia in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 19% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Henan Jianye's matches and 44% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Meizhou Kejia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.26 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.76 / defence 0.71 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 26%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 56%, Meizhou Kejia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.65 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.