Henan Jianye 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Henan Jianye. A 0.60 PPG lead over Chongqing Tongliang Long (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 62% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 58% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.29 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.863 / defence 0.871 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.603 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.387. Data: 53 Henan Jianye games / 24 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.76. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 40% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Henan Jianye 1.29 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.863 / def 0.871 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.603 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 50% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.86) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.60x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 53/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.44
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.02
0.73
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.73 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Tongliang Long, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 8L across 24 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.25 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.04 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.33 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Henan Jianye) and 33% (Chongqing Tongliang Long).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 33%; Henan Jianye have failed to score in 33% of games; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 42% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 33% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.29 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.73 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.60 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 58%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.29 PPG, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.