Henan Jianye 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jinjiang Sports Center plays host to Henan Jianye versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 5 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Henan Jianye at Jinjiang Sports Center this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Henan Jianye against 2.30 for Chengdu Better City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Chengdu Better City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Henan Jianye 0W, Chengdu Better City 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 43% versus Chengdu Better City 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 60% | Chengdu Better City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.32 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.121 / defence 0.769 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.699 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.440. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Henan Jianye games / 28 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 49% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Chengdu Better City 4.76. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 30% | Chengdu Better City 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Monday 5 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 49% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Henan Jianye 1.32 / Chengdu Better City 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.121 / def 0.769 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.699 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Chengdu Better City xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 5 December 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 49% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.12) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (0.70x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 42/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.35
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.10
0.77
Chengdu Better City xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.77 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 30 games, going 16W 5D 9L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (15W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.83 for Chengdu Better City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 10W 1D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.80 points per game from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.40 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Chengdu Better City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.07 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 3-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 47%, Chengdu Better City 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Henan Jianye) and 33% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 47%; Chengdu Better City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chengdu Better City defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.32 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.12 / defence 0.77 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.70 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 49% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 21%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Chengdu Better City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 60%, Chengdu Better City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.77 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.