Hebei Zhongji 0-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC make the trip to Yuexiushan Stadium to face Hebei Zhongji in Super League, Championship Round - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 January 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 4W 4D 2L at Yuexiushan Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Yuexiushan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Hebei Zhongji against 0.80 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hebei Zhongji 0W, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 40% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.32 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.919 / defence 0.994 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.023 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Hebei Zhongji's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Hebei Zhongji games / 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 35% | Draw 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 50% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 35% | Draw 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.32 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.919 / def 0.994 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.023 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 35% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.92) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (1.02x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.28
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.62
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.31 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 7D 7L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Hebei Zhongji against 1.45 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.60 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shenzhen Ruby FC won 3-0 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Hebei Zhongji, 80% for Shenzhen Ruby FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Hebei Zhongji) and 80% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hebei Zhongji's games and 80% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Hebei Zhongji's matches and 80% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Hebei Zhongji 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Hebei Zhongji 0-1 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.32 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 35% | Draw 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 35%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 30%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 1.25 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.