Hangzhou Greentown 3-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Yunnan Yukun at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 July 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.20 PPG versus Yunnan Yukun's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Yunnan Yukun in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 62% and Yunnan Yukun 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 69% | Yunnan Yukun 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.02 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.197 / defence 1.122 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.875 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.313. Data: 46 Hangzhou Greentown games / 16 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Yunnan Yukun 4.17. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 54% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Yunnan Yukun 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.02 / Yunnan Yukun 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.197 / def 1.122 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.875 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Yunnan Yukun xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 18 July 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 54% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.20) and Yunnan Yukun's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.66
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.31
1.29
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
3%
31.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.29 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 5W 5D 6L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun's form line: 6W 4D 6L from 16 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.25 PPG, Yunnan Yukun on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (3W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.38 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.86 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Yunnan Yukun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Yunnan Yukun in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 86%, Yunnan Yukun at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Hangzhou Greentown and 43% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yunnan Yukun in 43%; Yunnan Yukun in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 57% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 43% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Yunnan Yukun 3-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.02 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.29 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 24%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 69%, Yunnan Yukun 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.25 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.