Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 18 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Qingdao Jonoon's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Hangzhou Greentown have won 0, Qingdao Jonoon 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 Qingdao Jonoon — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 73% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Qingdao Jonoon 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.71 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.078 / defence 0.904 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.600 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.227. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.600 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 55 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 22.

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.63 | Draw 3.92 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 60% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 40% (last 10 away games).

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