Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Monday 30 June 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.741 / defence 1.020 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.226 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.325. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Dalian Zhixing games / 45 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 29% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.13. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 29% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.24 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.741 / def 1.020 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.226 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Hangzhou Greentown xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 30 June 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 29% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Zhixing's attack at 0.74x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
29%
3.49
24%
4.13
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.90
1.66
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
5%
18.28
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.66 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Dalian Zhixing won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dalian Zhixing defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.66 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 29% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Dalian Zhixing win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.