Dalian Zhixing 2-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Zhixing face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Changchun Yatai travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing in Super League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, Changchun Yatai have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Changchun Yatai's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.54 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.808 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.469. Data: built from Dalian Zhixing's last 2 games and Changchun Yatai's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 33%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.46 | Draw 3.81 | Changchun Yatai 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Dalian Zhixing 2 games, Changchun Yatai 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.54 / Changchun Yatai 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.808 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Changchun Yatai xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai?
Dalian Zhixing 2 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 41% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Zhixing's last 2 games and Changchun Yatai's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.81
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.90
1.36
Changchun Yatai xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.36 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Dalian Zhixing (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: Changchun Yatai 0-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Changchun Yatai?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dalian Zhixing cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.54 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.36 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 33%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.