Dalian Zhixing 0-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing host Beijing Guoan at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.68 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.944 / defence 0.936 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.321 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.414. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Dalian Zhixing games / 39 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 39%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.68 / Beijing Guoan 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.944 / def 0.936 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.321 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Beijing Guoan xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 08:30 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Dalian Zhixing 0 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 36% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Beijing Guoan away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (0.94) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
36%
2.75
24%
4.11
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.43
1.75
Beijing Guoan xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
6%
15.80
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.75 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Zhixing 0-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.68 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.75 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.32 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 39%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.