Dalian Aerbin 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Dalian Aerbin take on Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hangzhou Greentown travel to Dalian Sports Center to take on Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hangzhou Greentown's 2.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 60% of Hangzhou Greentown's (from Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Jul 2022, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–2 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 57% versus Hangzhou Greentown 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Aerbin surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Hangzhou Greentown have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.891 / defence 0.824 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.024 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.314. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 42 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 41.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.00 | Draw 2.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.17. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — low conviction — though recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Hangzhou Greentown 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.15 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.891 / def 0.824 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.024 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 33% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.89x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 42 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
35%
2.85
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.26
1.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.11 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 9D 13L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (18W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across their last 18 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.72 points per game from their last 18 away games (8W 7D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.77 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 games (1.37 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.44 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 26 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 August 2023: Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 67%, Hangzhou Greentown 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 39% (Hangzhou Greentown).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 39% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 60%, Hangzhou Greentown 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.