Chengdu Better City 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 6D 2L from 9 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Chengdu Better City have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 0W 3D 1L at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chengdu Better City at 1.00 PPG versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 44% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chengdu Better City 22% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.46 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.866 / defence 1.253 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.944 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.150. Data: 7 Chengdu Better City games / 21 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 75% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 4 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.46 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.866 / def 1.253 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.944 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 4 July 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 39% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 1W-6D-2L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.82
1.36
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.36 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 6D 2L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chengdu Better City on 1.00 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Early Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 6D 2L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 0.75 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2024, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 75%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chengdu Better City) and 50% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Chengdu Better City's games and 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.46 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 22%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.00 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.