Chengdu Better City 2-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shuangliu Sports Centre plays host to Chengdu Better City versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 21 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City at Shuangliu Sports Centre this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Chengdu Better City, 2.30 for Shandong Luneng — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shandong Luneng in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chengdu Better City 0W, Shandong Luneng 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 48% versus Shandong Luneng 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 41% | Shandong Luneng 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.62 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.201 / defence 0.977 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.385 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.383. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Chengdu Better City games / 39 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 33% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 43%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Shandong Luneng 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 70% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Shuangliu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 21 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 33% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.62 / Shandong Luneng 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.201 / def 0.977 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.385 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Shandong Luneng xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 21 November 2022 at Shuangliu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Shuangliu Sports Centre.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 33% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.20x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.39x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 25/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
33%
3.00
23%
4.30
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.50
1.87
Shandong Luneng xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
15%
6.50
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
5%
19.51
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.87 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 12W 10D 5L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 20W 4D 3L from 27 games, 2.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chengdu Better City.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (3W 7D 1L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 8W 1D 2L from 11 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.33 scored and 0.81 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Chengdu Better City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 12W 10D 5L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 20W 4D 3L in their last 27 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.45 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Chengdu Better City go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 1-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 73%, Shandong Luneng 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Chengdu Better City and 73% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Chengdu Better City's games and 54% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 73% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chengdu Better City defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shandong Luneng 2-1 at Shuangliu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.62 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.87 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.39 / defence 0.92, drawn from 25/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 33% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 43%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 41%, Shandong Luneng 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (27 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (27 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.70. Form was overturned, with Chengdu Better City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.