Chengdu Better City 6-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Hebei Zhongji travel to Shuangliu Sports Centre to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Thursday 3 November 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Shuangliu Sports Centre, Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 6D 1L this season (8 games, 1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.12 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Shuangliu Sports Centre this season.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (24 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (24 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 46% versus Hebei Zhongji 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 33% | Hebei Zhongji 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.60 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.800 / defence 0.965 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.640 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.306. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Chengdu Better City games / 36 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 56% | Draw 25% | Hebei Zhongji 19%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Hebei Zhongji 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 75% | Hebei Zhongji 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Shuangliu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 56% | Draw 25% | Hebei Zhongji 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.60 / Hebei Zhongji 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.800 / def 0.965 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.640 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Hebei Zhongji xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 3 November 2022 at Shuangliu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji?
Chengdu Better City 6 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Shuangliu Sports Centre.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 56% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 4.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (0.80) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.00
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.40
0.81
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
4%
26.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.81 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 10W 9D 5L from 24 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 23L across 24 games — 0.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 1W 6D 1L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 0W 0D 8L across 8 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.54 scored and 2.92 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 10W 9D 5L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 23L in their last 24 (0.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.12 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji?
From 2 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2022, when Chengdu Better City 6-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 75%, Hebei Zhongji 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chengdu Better City) and 75% (Hebei Zhongji). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Hebei Zhongji?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Chengdu Better City's games and 50% of Hebei Zhongji's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 75% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hebei Zhongji 6-0 at Shuangliu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.60 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.81 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hebei Zhongji landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.64 / defence 1.45, drawn from 22/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 56% | Draw 25% | Hebei Zhongji 19%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 33%, Hebei Zhongji 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (24 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (24 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.