Chengdu Better City 2-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City host Dalian Zhixing at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 2D 1L at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.89 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.976 / defence 0.894 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.782 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.558. Data: 34 Chengdu Better City games / 4 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.89 / Dalian Zhixing 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.976 / def 0.894 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.782 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.558 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dalian Zhixing xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 54% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Chengdu Better City home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.86
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.98
1.09
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
33.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.09 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Zhixing 2-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.89 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.09 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 54% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.