Chengdu Better City 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park plays host to Chengdu Better City versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 3 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chengdu Better City have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Chengdu Better City have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 0.60 PPG lead over Beijing Guoan (2.20 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 47% versus Beijing Guoan 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 47% | Beijing Guoan 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.84 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.148 / defence 0.882 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.117 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.297. Data: 47 Chengdu Better City games / 47 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 25%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 4.00. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.84 / Beijing Guoan 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.148 / def 0.882 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.117 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Beijing Guoan xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 3 July 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 49% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.15) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.12x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.93
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.11
1.28
Beijing Guoan xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
4%
24.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.28 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 47 games, going 25W 17D 5L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.62 PPG from 47 outings (21W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.62 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 13W 10D 0L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.68 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 64%.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 25W 17D 5L in their last 47 games (1.96 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.13 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Chengdu Better City
4
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Chengdu Better City 2-2 Beijing Guoan.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 56%, Beijing Guoan 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Chengdu Better City and 70% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Chengdu Better City's games and 70% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 70% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Chengdu Better City 0-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.84 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.28 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.15 / defence 0.88 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 25%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Beijing Guoan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 47%, Beijing Guoan 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.96 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.