Changchun Yatai 3-4 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Changchun Yatai's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–5 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 60% and SHANGHAI SIPG 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | SHANGHAI SIPG 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.29 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.018 / defence 0.902 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.391 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.332. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.712 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Changchun Yatai games / 55 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 30% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.17. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 30% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.29 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.018 / def 0.902 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.391 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 30% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (7 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 5W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.39x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
30%
3.37
24%
4.17
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.96
1.67
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.67 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 15D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.35 PPG from 55 outings (40W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 11W 8D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.37 points per game from 27 outings (20W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.62 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 40W 9D 6L in their last 55 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.52 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 63%, SHANGHAI SIPG 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Changchun Yatai) and 63% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 41% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Changchun Yatai 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 3-4 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.29 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.67 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.39 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 30% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.