Changchun Yatai 2-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng meet at Changchun Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun Sports Center Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shandong Luneng are 1.20 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai in recent Super League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Shandong Luneng in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shandong Luneng, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 2–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.94 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.816 / defence 0.972 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.883 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.368. Shandong Luneng's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Changchun Yatai games / 45 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 28% | Draw 31% | Shandong Luneng 40%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Shandong Luneng 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 80% | Shandong Luneng 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 28% | Draw 31% | Shandong Luneng 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.94 / Shandong Luneng 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.816 / def 0.972 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.883 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Shandong Luneng xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 28% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Record (7 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 6W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.82) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.88x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
28%
3.52
31%
3.21
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.11
1.18
Shandong Luneng xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.18 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 23L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 41W 13D 10L across 64 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 11L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 14W 10D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
8
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 53% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.94 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.18 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.88 / defence 0.74, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 28% | Draw 31% | Shandong Luneng 40%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.