Changchun Yatai 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Development Area Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 June 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Development Area Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Changchun Yatai at 1.40 PPG versus Qingdao Youth Island's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 4–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 60% and Qingdao Youth Island 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 67% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.23 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.739 / defence 0.996 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.874 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.356. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Changchun Yatai games / 44 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 35%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.23 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.739 / def 0.996 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.874 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Qingdao Youth Island xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 25 June 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 37% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.74) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.51
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.41
1.18
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.18 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 8D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.07 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.47 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 53%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Changchun Yatai and 73% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Changchun Yatai's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.23 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.18 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.74 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 35%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.07 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.