Changchun Yatai 1-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Dalian Aerbin travel to Wuyuan River Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 June 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 6W 3D 1L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.40 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.329 / defence 0.989 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.112 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.133. Changchun Yatai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Changchun Yatai games / 16 Dalian Aerbin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 23% | Dalian Aerbin 25%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Dalian Aerbin 4.00. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Dalian Aerbin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (16 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 23% | Dalian Aerbin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.88 / Dalian Aerbin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.329 / def 0.989 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.112 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 52% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.33) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (16/16 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.43
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.12
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
4%
25.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.25 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 22 games, going 11W 6D 5L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.95 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.00 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 46%, Dalian Aerbin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Changchun Yatai) and 54% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 27% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.33 / defence 0.99 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/16 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 23% | Dalian Aerbin 25%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Dalian Aerbin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.